Archive for the 'Investor Relations' Category

Did Walmart deserve the punishment?

By “punishment,” I mean the 10% drop in Walmart’s stock price yesterday (February 20) when the company reported slower-than-expected sales and profits in its e-commerce business. My comment at RetailWire expresses a contrary opinion about the market reaction:

Walmart’s stock took a similar hit a few years ago when management decided to investment-spend in the store experience — more payroll in areas like fresh food, remodeling and refixturing as needed, and so on. These were smart strategic choices that weren’t meant to please investors only interested in the latest quarter. Walmart’s decisions at the time have been rewarded with better results ever since.

I look at the 10 percent drop in stock price as a similar overreaction. Walmart is now starting to come up against its own numbers after the Jet.com acquisition, and (more importantly) it’s doing major spending on logistics and marketing to gain omnichannel market share. I’m no stock picker, but maybe this is a buy opportunity …

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Can Macy’s claim a turnaround?

Today’s RetailWire panel focused on Macy’s 2017 holiday results, where they reported a 1% gain for the season. Despite the optimism of their executive chairman Terry Lundgren, most panelists agree with me that the celebration is premature:

As the article points out, Macy’s comp sales of 1 percent paled in comparison to J.C. Penney and Kohl’s, in a season where brick-and-mortar retailers did better than expected. So they actually lost market share during a robust shopping season, and probably ran behind in their physical stores if you assume that most of their growth came from e-commerce.

It’s hard to point out much good news in these numbers, other than being “less bad” than year-to-date. The large number of store closures doesn’t appear to have driven sales to remaining locations, and the jury is still out on the wisdom of the Backstage store-within-a-store strategy. In this panelist’s opinion, it does little to enhance the brand image of the rest of the store.

“Whole Paycheck” no more

As soon as Amazon closed the deal on its Whole Foods acquisition, it dropped prices on several best-selling staples (with more to come). This sent a shudder through the rest of the grocery industry, especially with Amazon’s history of losing money to gain market share. I argue (on RetailWire) that Amazon had to move fast to overcome Whole Foods’ perception as an overpriced place to buy groceries:

I did a fast price check at the site for Metro Market (one of the Kroger’s divisions operating here in Milwaukee, and the sister brand of Mariano’s in Chicago). Its prices on organic bananas, eggs, butter and Fuji apples are already at or slightly below the new pricing at Whole Foods. (Its price on lean ground beef is 50 cents higher as of this morning.) What this points out is that Whole Foods had a pricing problem (“Whole Paycheck”) that Amazon is taking aggressive steps to correct.

Based on what happened to Costco’s and Walmart’s stock prices since Friday, there is a typical overreaction to the steps that Amazon is taking. Just keep in mind that Walmart and many other grocers are already competitive and Whole Foods is just joining the party. Also keep in mind that the Whole Foods brick-and-mortar footprint has a long way to go before it catches up with its competitors, despite the smart moves that Amazon is likely to make.

Target finds small-format stores are more productive

Today’s RetailWire discussion centers on Target, which is enjoying more productivity in its expanding base of small-footprint stores. I don’t think this is rocket science:

Locating smaller-format stores in higher density areas (especially city neighborhoods) should drive more productivity. If these stores aren’t generating much higher sales per square foot, they are unlikely to be profitable given the higher occupancy costs (rent, loss prevention, etc.). So Target needs to hold these stores to a higher standard in the first place.

That being said, the focus on fewer categories and tightly edited assortments probably doesn’t hurt, either, and might be a lesson learned for the full-sized Target stores. I assume that most of the small-format stores contain much smaller grocery assortments, which is a good thing considering the low margins in an area where Target has struggled.

Walmart on a roll?

Walmart’s 2nd quarter results were strong, although their stock price may or may not be rewarded for it in the short term. RetailWire panelists addressed a simple question — is Walmart unstoppable? — and here’s my response:

I would never say “unstoppable,” but Walmart’s strategies in its stores and omnichannel certainly seem to be paying off. They do need to anticipate the impact of the Amazon-Whole Foods tie-up, in terms of its impact on online grocery retailing. But Walmart is seeing payback from its multi-year investments in upgrading brick-and-mortar, focusing on better execution in food, and getting its full-size prototype right

Walmart is the most obvious case of a retailer figuring out how to leverage its e-commerce business into store traffic, but Target’s results seemed to point to the same thing. Even stores like Kohl’s with comp-store decreases suggested 2nd quarter improvements in store traffic — so maybe the stores with the most aggressive omnichannel effort are starting to see results.

Second quarter sales show a pulse

The stock market did not react well to most stores’ second quarter earnings, but there were hints of improvement from most retailers. My comment below (from RetailWire) focuses on Nordstrom in particular but several other stores show signs of figuring out omnichannel too:

The results of Nordstrom’s Anniversary Sale (and the “less bad” sales reports from Macy’s and Kohl’s) may point toward a stronger second half than expected. It’s too early to tell if we’re seeing a full-fledged revival of women’s apparel sales (still reported as a weak spot on Kohl’s earnings call), but the Nordstrom numbers are encouraging.

I shopped the Anniversary Sale in a couple of markets, and you’d be hard pressed to find a robust sale offering in men’s or women’s — so there must have been some traffic-driven regular-price selling in the mix. Hats off to Nordstrom for sticking to its promotional discipline, and for continuing to ride the success of its Rack and e-commerce businesses.

H&M switches to quarterly reporting

H&M is joining most other retailers in reporting comp-store sales on a quarterly basis, not monthly. I joined other RetailWire panelists in commenting on this change:

I agree that there used to be too much focus on monthly comp-sales numbers, given changes in the promotional calendar, holiday shifts from one year to the next, and weather deviations. So I understand H&M’s desire to report quarterly sales as a more accurate measure of its business trend.

On the other hand, it’s hard to conclude that the retailers who switched from monthly to quarterly reporting awhile ago saw any benefit to their sales trend. (In some cases, just the opposite.) If anything, the change has put even more spotlight on quarterly earnings rather than the long-term strategic view for many of these companies.


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