Black Friday 2015 observations

Many RetailWire panelists and others have commented on the relative lack of mall traffic, on the day after Thanksgiving. While some of this can be blamed on the rapid growth of both e-commerce sales and Thursday openings, I still lay part of the blame on merchandise content. In short, the lack of newness in women’s apparel is hurting sales right now, and not just on Black Friday:

One mall doesn’t make a big sample size, but the Simon mall that I shopped on Friday morning is anchored by Macy’s, JCP, Sears, Bon Ton and Kohl’s. So it’s a good place to look for areas of common ground. I noted the same thing that many observers saw nationwide: Mall traffic was not impressive around 10am on Friday, at what should be the height of “doorbuster” sales.

Yes, the growth of omnichannel, Thursday openings and weeklong “doorbusters” (instead of for a few hours on Friday morning) have all affected After Thanksgiving volume. But these tactics didn’t just start in 2015…they have been gaining strength for the past several years. So how to account for the visible dropoff on Friday? I believe it still comes down to merchandise content, especially in the women’s apparel areas that have been troubled all year. In my observation, this was consistently the quietest area of the stores.

That being said, it’s too early to write off the weekend (or the season) until somebody adds together the brick-and-mortar numbers with the e-commerce sales and what is likely to be a robust Cyber Monday (or “Cyber Week”) this year.

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