Thanksgiving 2014: A post-mortem

I posted the following at RetailWire on the Monday after Thanksgiving. The “punch line” is that Cyber Monday sales were soft, too. Despite a lot of positive tailwinds, this holiday may be another squeaker:

It can’t come as a surprise that sales on Friday itself fell in brick-and-mortar stores, although the size of the decrease was bigger than I expected. Every year that sales are pulled forward by earlier openings — first from 6am to 4am to midnight on Friday and now to 6pm or earlier on Thursday — takes the sense of urgency out of Friday morning. The entire four-day weekend has to be considered disappointing.

This year’s decline was more pronounced than usual because of the rapid shift to e-commerce and mobile commerce (not reported in the overall weekend numbers) and the probability that some sales shifted to the early part of November this year. As the consumer becomes more empowered each year by the information at her fingertips, she is also less likely to believe that Black Friday pricing is really the lowest of the holiday season.

Add it all up, and it probably made for a more pleasant, and less crowded, shopping experience on Friday. But the sheer size of the numbers will leave retailers sweating it out — as usual — for the next couple of weeks.

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