Continued good news on the economic horizon

OK, so I posted the following RetailWire comment just before Memorial Day (and before some of the recent downdrafts in the stock market). I still believe there is more good news than bad news on the economic horizon right now:

Surely the Great Recession that began during the second half of 2008 didn’t begin with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, but with horrendous spikes in gas prices that happened earlier in the year. (The bursting bubble of real estate prices didn’t help, either.) On the other hand, oil and gas prices fell dramatically last year but it didn’t translate immediately to higher consumer spending. There is something of a lag effect, but I agree that falling pump prices (if the trend continues) will help sustain the recovery in other discretionary spending. (It’s like a “tax cut” to consumers, as Larry Kudlow likes to point out.) It’s also helpful to the recovery that money is still cheap, with mortgage rates being at historic lows. All of this should help consumers lead the economy out of a ditch, despite market nervousness about more intangible issues like European sovereign debt.


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